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Joined 10 months ago
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Cake day: January 24th, 2024

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  • The US is at least 40 years removed from any kind of real electronics manufacturing at scale.

    This kind of thing takes generational knowledge to get right and we outsourced that knowledge a long time ago.

    We are now several generations from being able to manufacture electronics on the level.

    Either trump has no idea how anything works or he’s actively trying to destroy the American economy.






  • If you mean the Monty Hall paradox, this is how I’ve recently been able to understand it.

    You start with a 1/3rd chance of being right. That’s a 2/3rds chance you are wrong. Your first pick is likely wrong.

    The host now must open a losing door. Since you likely already picked a losing door, the host likely only has one option for which door to reveal.

    So since chances are best that you first picked a wrong door, then the host picked the other wrong door. Which means the one that hasn’t been picked by anyone yet is likely the winning door.

    Edit: Monte Carlo paradox is a thing. My bad.

    The gambler’s fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy, occurs when an individual erroneously believes that a certain random event is less likely or more likely to happen based on the outcome of a previous event or series of events.

    For this one I like the example: “The surgery fails 9/10 times. The last 9 patients have died. Does that mean you in the clear?”