Idk, when you look at the entire picture, does Trump not have the far easier path to 270 this year? He only has to win 2 states (PA & GA) and that’s it, he wins. Kamala has to win at the minimum 3, and if she loses PA, it becomes even harder for her. Trump could just spend all of his money campaigning in those 2 states and get back in the White House. Yet these odds seem to disagree with me.

Am I trippin?

  • BadmanDan@lemmy.worldOP
    0·
    1 month ago

    That’s what I’m saying, I think MI will go to Harris, but if she loses PA, Trump just needs NV & AZ and he’s going back to the White House.

    While if Harris loses PA, she HAS to win GA, there’s no path to victory for her without GA in this scenario.

      • kent_eh@lemmy.caEnglish
        0·
        1 month ago

        MI will be complicated because of the Muslim vote and Gaza.

        Which is just bizarre, because Trump has shown he is much more willing to suck up to whatever Netanyahu wants than Biden or Harris.

        • AwkwardLookMonkeyPuppet@lemmy.worldEnglish
          0·
          1 month ago

          It doesn’t matter to trump voters what he shows, they only believe what he says, not what he does.

          The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.

      • BadmanDan@lemmy.worldOP
        0·
        1 month ago

        I don’t think that’ll matter, Trump BARELY won MI in 2016 by less than 10k votes, and that was with Russian Psyop Jill Stein stealing votes from Hillary there.

        In 2020, Michigan had the highest youth turnout in the country and Biden won it by 150k votes.

        I don’t see how Trump can flip that state back, those are insane margins.

        • jordanlund@lemmy.world
          0·
          1 month ago

          Clinton in Michigan was just stupid, she thought it was in the bag and failed to campaign there. That hurt her more than Stein did.

          But the youth vote is fickle, they turned against Biden there this year, he was never going to win MI which is one of the reasons he dropped out.

          • BadmanDan@lemmy.worldOP
            0·
            1 month ago

            Regardless of turnout, I just don’t see a 150k margin being overcome in just 4 years. Harris would have to lose an insane amount of voters and Trump would have to gain a lot of voters all within 4 years. I just don’t see him winning that state.