- ^^
a > 30000 vehicle that won’m oe available for a decade
Just a reminder that reasonably minded shareholders would never take what Elon says as anything other than fluffery, and should refrain from making any financial decisions based on such fluff.
WTF? How can a CEO walk from responsibility by claiming puffery? Which is the same as admitting to lying!
In civilized countries CEO is a position of responsibility, you can’t just talk up stock or sales with false claims. The requirements for a CEO are higher than usual, exactly because everything they say can have a financial impact.
I’m pretty sure that judgement is not according to normal practices. It’s disgusting they let that pedo walk again and again.Now you know why China DiSsApPeArS so many of them.
Also known as fucking jail.
Well, the stock tanked by ~10% after the news, so yeah, shareholders don’t seem to be buying it and want more specifics.
So glad I have Tesla shorts lol
if he gets over his fear of lidar and stops trying to do everything with cameras this could actually work out … so basically this isn’t going to work out.
What benefit would a lidar bring that they haven’t already achieved with cameras and radar? The car not seeing where it’s going is not exactly an issue they’re having with FSD.
a lidar could tell the difference between a person on a bus billboard and a person. it brings 3d to a 2d party.
A lidar alone can’t do that. It’ll just build a 3D point cloud. You still need software to detect the individual objects in there and that’s easier said than done. So far Tesla seems to be achieving this just fine by using cameras alone. Human eyes can tell the difference between an actual person and a picture of a person too. I don’t see how this is supposed to be somethin you can’t do with just cameras.
are the tesla cameras 3D?
No, and neither are your eyes, but you can still see the world in 3D.
You can use normal cameras to create 3D images by placing two cameras next to each other and creating a stereogram. Alternatively, you can do this with just one camera by taking a photo, moving it slightly, and then taking another photo - exactly what cameras in a moving vehicle are doing all the time. Objects closer to the camera move differently than the background. If you have a billboard with a person on it, the background in that picture moves differently relative to the person than the background behind an actual person would.
Talk about making a difficult problem (self-driving) more difficult to solve by solving another hard problem.
Just slapping on a lidar doesn’t simply solve that issue for you either. Making out individual objects from the point cloud data is equally difficult plus you’re then having to deal with cameras too because Waymo has both. I don’t see how you imagine having Lidar and cameras would be easier to deal with than just cameras.
Also. Tesla already has more or less solved this issue. FSD works just fine with cameras only and new HW4 models have radar too.
neither are your eyes
That’s a grossly misleading statement.
We definitely use 2 eyes to achieve a 3D image with depth perception.So the question is obviously whether Tesla does the same with their Camera AI for FSD.
IDK if they do, but if they do, they apparently do it poorly. Because FSD has a history of driving into things that are obviously (for a human) in front of it.
So far Tesla seems to be achieving this just fine by using cameras alone.
Funny, last I heard, Tesla FSD has a tendency to run into motorcycles.
With lidar there would be no doubt that there is an actual object, and obviously you don’t drive into it.
this could actually work out
No it won’t, Elon Next year Musk has promised Fully autonomous driving next year since 2016. He has sold his cars with subscriptions for FSD for years, despite it doesn’t work. It’s even illegal to call it FSD now, so Tesla has to call it assisted FSD, which is an oxymoron.
With this move, Enron Musk will more likely ensure the continued decline of Tesla. The Cybercab most likely will not be a moneymaker, and the focus on developing it, will detract from Tesla developing much needed new EV models, for a market with increasing competition.
Tesla is far from #1 in developing autonomous driving, so the chances are very slim that they would be even close to be first to market.
AFAIK this is pretty much the current rank:
-1 Waymo (Google)
-2 Mercedes
-3 Mobil Eye
-4 GM (Cruise)
-5 Baidu
-6 TeslaPossibly Nissan-Renault (WeRide) and Nvidia can match Tesla too.
Notice that Tesla used MobilEye originally up to 2016, but MobilEye ended the partnership after a Tesla model S had a fatal crash. I suspect the irresponsible claims implementation and practices by Elon Musk were too much.
Elon Musk is insane and a con man, to believe anything he claims about the future of his companies is naive.
Man, how did Mobil Eye not just tack an “s” on the end? The pun is right there, and it’s frankly excellent and super topical to what they’re trying to do.
Because Musk has a weird obsession that everything needs to work with just cameras, and no other sensors can help. While it might work someday in the far future with proper AGI (e.g Delamain from Cyberpunk 2077), until then it’s a pretty hopeless endeavour.
I’m not sure the approach Elon Musk has to developing self driving will ever work.
From what I’ve heard about how they “teach” the AI, it probably won’t, because loading massive amounts of new data is rewarded, but there is no proper qualitative control.The problem is computer vision has a LONG way to go before it’s truly on par with human eyesight. Musk loves to crow how cameras are sufficient since we use our eyes to drive.
The thing is, eyes have special neural circuits that detect motion. They essentially filter out unnecessary information and send just the motion details to the brain. This prevents the brain from being overloaded with every detail the eye constantly sees.
And being overloaded with everything is exactly what computer vision currently does. It’s just a stream of images that the computer must analyze completely. So it’s working exactly opposite to how the eye & brain works.
Long way, but it’s not an impossible task, as at the core the eye is nothing but a bunch of light sensors that spit out a result, we just need to figure out how to calculate that result ourselves. Motion amplification could be one solution given enough computing power to do it in real time, for example.
But we agree, safe and accurate camera based self driving isn’t going to happen in a long, long time.
Oh. So “unveiling” doesn’t mean they have something. Just the “2 years” promise is repeated for the N’th time ;-)
Normally it’s always promised next year, so a 2 year deadline means the project is in serious trouble.
That’s true, he’s been saying 6 months or a year for Full Self Driving for almost 10 years now.
What mass transit program is Musk trying to disrupt now? (As he did California’s high speed rail with the Hyperloop.)
No way in hell is this going to be ready in two years.
Although I do like the idea behind the vehicle.
I’m surprised at his numbers. He claims a bus costs something like $1/mile, while his car would be something like $0.20/mile. I’m guessing the main difference is the driver, so I wonder if something like the robovan (looks stupid IMO) would be able to replace buses in many cases. In my area, we have on-demand transit outside of bus service zones (a van will come pick you up), so it would be cool if this type of service could connect individual riders to transit hubs.
But yeah, it’s not going to be ready in two years. Could be cool though if it is and is priced as he stated (big doubt).
It would depend hugely on the bus, and the environment it’s working in, but $1 per mile sounds low, unless that doesn’t count labour.
Buses are actually quite expensive to operate, it’s cost effective because that cost is split between so many passengers.
I assume the figure was amortized across typical passenger loads. So if a bus typically carries 10 people, $10/mile to operate becomes $1/mile/passenger. I think that’s what Musk is quoting here. I don’t know where he gets that figure, but if it’s accurate (big doubt) and if he can beat it (again, big doubt), then that’s absolutely amazing!
I tried looking for figures, but most of the numbers I see are revenue per passenger, not operating cost per passenger. Revenue isn’t particularly interesting because so many transit systems heavily subsidize mass transit.
Its name is still not clear. Prior to the event, Musk referred to it as both ‘Cybercab’ and ‘Robotaxi’.
Couldn’t even decide a name and everything is 3d render. Add 3 years at least to the existing estimation. At least they didn’t have a toy rc as a representation, like their announcement of the robot.
Musk said that Cybercab is equipped with Tesla’s AI5 onboard computer and based on a visual check, it appears to only use cameras, like Tesla’s existing vehicles.
Gonna add another 1 year to it. Cybertruck didn’t even have full autopilot yet, and required the car to be babyseated. Steering-less car that only use camera for their autopilot is gonna be a disaster.
A disaster using camera only for autopilot? Tesla FSD supervised has been successfully operating in consumer vehicles using cameras only for a couple years now. FSD software for the last several months has been performing phenomenally. If you take a ride in one it’s not hard at all to see how it could operate fully autonomously even within the next year.
“successfully”
Last time I drove one and tried it, it tried to ram me into the next lane over on a medium curve. It’s not great.
A disaster using camera only for autopilot?
A disaster for steering-less, unsupervised autopilot car. There’s a difference.
If you take a ride in one it’s not hard at all to see how it could operate fully autonomously even within the next year.
I’ve have faith before when CGP Grey simp so much on Tesla autopilot several years ago, but that faith waned so hard after several mishap and death. Yes, it’s gonna be fully autopilot like before, but it would need to be supervised as always.
In the case of steering-less tesla, there’s no backup driver to prevent this.
Sure, I hear you, you’ve lost faith. Sounds like this happened over years which is understandable given the prolonged timelines and failed promises. What makes you think that the system will always need to be supervised? Any new technology can experience hurdles, but can you elaborate on
several mishap and deaths
? Things may happen once in a while for a completely new technology involving vehicles and driving, but for the long term it is a necessary step to develop something that can save countless more lives. Chances are, you are either currently on, or have tried a drug or medication that has lead to numerous deaths and permanent disability during its workup and development. Did you lose faith in medicine and avoid it, or did you take the drug despite the incredibly rare risk of death?
It seems that your attitude about the current situation was formed years ago. Definitely worth a second look and seeing for yourself, as the supervising driver, if you are not yet aware of the improvement and the current state of the software.
Things may happen once in a while for a completely new technology involving vehicles and driving, but for the long term it is a necessary step to develop something that can save countless more lives.
Do you know how villainous that sounds?
“some of you may die, but it’s a sacrifice i’m willing to make.”
Yeah, you sounds like a villain from VHS copy of Shrek.
What makes you think that the system will always need to be supervised?
What makes you think a system doesn’t need to be supervised? What datacenter doesn’t have people readily available to make change and fix bug? What autonomous factory doesn’t have people readily available to stop the system and jump in to fix fatal error? What autonomous train system doesn’t have failsafe and purposefully build infrastructure to support the automation to be as safe as possible?
What makes you think Tesla done something so good, so brilliant that’s better than those enclosed, sandboxed environment, that it doesn’t need lidar as a failsafe? What gives Tesla special privilege to throw safety out of the window because of Melon Husk’s ego?
If you so desperately trying to save life, here’s some suggestion.
Haha, okay so this is about emotion and your predisposition to hate Elon Musk as well as your fear of new technology.
I guess we are not actually participating in conversation anymore so I will bow out.
Good luck my safety champion. Go drive manual and ensure the world always has a person watching, because people don’t get distracted…right?
Ohh so you can’t even give me a reason why i should trust something without safety rail, only talk about how safe it is right now, supervised, but didn’t elaborate on why steering-less, unsupervised system without redundant safety feature like having a lidar is okay. And i’m the emotional one and not participating. Sure bud.
Go drive manual and ensure the world always has a person watching, because people don’t get distracted…right?
What are you on about? 🤨 You talk about the topic as if everyone driving a Tesla or Melon Husk have the intention to share the technology with every car maker.
It’s interesting to see someone so upset that someone consider safety when driving a 5,000+ lb vehicle.
Usually, people who say “this is about emotion” in a debate or argument are the ones acting fully on their emotions. Oh no, someone is emotional about not wanting to get killed by a tech bro texting or sleeping while their car poorly “drives” them! The horror!
Steering-less car that only use camera for their autopilot is gonna be a disaster.
Recently found out about F9, superb content even though i don’t ride motorcycle.
electric robotaxis can help reduce co2 emissions and decrease the total amount of cars. This is good.
Looks more like the number of cars will stay the same-ish, but now there won’t be a taxi driver making a living of it.
Wrong. The problem right now is low utilisation of cars. Most cars just sit around 90-95% of the day. A robotaxi would have much higher utilisation, therefore fewer cars are needed overall.
A robotaxi would have much higher utilisation
You could call this “hope”.
Or “wet dream”.
Are you familiar with the concept of a taxi? Do you really think a taxi does not make more trips per day than a privately owned car?
I think that this depends heavily on the success of that enterprise.
I am pretty sure that they start (when / if they start) with a very high number of vehicles in a city.
It will end up being analogous to Uber and Lyft, and neither helps reducing the amount of cars on the road.
If it works. Don’t Teslas still have problems in his stupidass underground Vegas loop? And that’s pretty much as ideal driving conditions as you can get.
Ironically that’s pretty much the only place where FSD struggles at.
Indeed.
I just doubt his ability to actually bring it to market in any reasonable capacity anytime soon.
In theory.
I also hope this can be a solution for people who need a car to live while reducing the number of individual cars, but I’m afraid Tesla is not really interested in reducing the number of cars.
Robotaxis are NOT going to reduce the number of cars that are filling up the streets and parking spaces.
They are replacing some of the traditional traffic while they carry passengers, and then they add more traffic when going home (or searching for a parking lot, or doing idle circles) after the ride, and when coming for the next passenger.
Fully self driving too! Snerk.
Coming in 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5, oh whatever. In the future Ketamine Karen will introduce a new scam / con / road safety hazard!
Dumbest car design yet Elon. Congrats. Nothing says cab like a couple design with gullwing doors.
I agree it is an idiotic design for a cab, but I’d argue the Cybertruck is a way dumber design even by visuals alone. That thing would at least make for a half decent sports car (again, visually).
A cab with no driver is just an incredibly expensive gender neutral toilet. I shudder to think what will be done in these if they ever exist.
Musk is installing men and women’s toilets separately, like God intended.
Given Tesla’s usual build quality I feel like it’s pretty much inevitable that there are going to be an enormous amount of skull and limb injuries from those gullwing doors.
Johnny cab hopes you enjoyed the ride
At first, i was staunchly against this as i am onboard the Fuck Tesla and Musk train.
However, electric auto-taxis would be great in addition to mass transport.Fuck Musk, btw
They would, but don’t expect it from Tesla. Other companies are making actual, real progress while Musk continues kicking the can down the road with bold promises and no timelines.
Where I live, there is a bus driver shortage leading to cancelled buses and limited service. Cyber cab, van or bus that runs the route outside of peak hours to give 24/7 service and monitor routes would be a big help. And it’s a fixed route so the system can be optimized for those.
Agreed. Although they started the show by showing a slide of how shit subways are… so I don’t think it is in Teslas interest to be an addition to mass transport. And they themselves walk a fine line between selling a consumercar or just reinventing buses
